Ivorian leader reportedly repeats demand for rebels to disarm before talks Paris AFP (World Service) in English 1739 GMT 13 Oct 02 AGENCE FRANCE PRESSE Sunday, October 13, 2002 Journal Code: 2131 Language: ENGLISH Record Type: FULLTEXT Document Type: Daily Report; News Word Count: 822 ABIDJAN, Oct 13 (AFP) - With rebels now in control of Ivory Coast's three main towns, President Laurent Gbagbo faces a simple choice: talks or all-out war. The crisis that has gripped the west African country for almost a month is worsening and appears to be drawing in Angola, which began sending military equipment to the government troops at the weekend, according to military sources. Diplomatic and military observers see only two scenarios for ending the turmoil: talks or an all-out war. West African mediators held separate meetings Sunday with the rebels and Gbagbo, with new proposals for a ceasefire. Gbagbo rejected an earlier ceasefire proposed by the 15-nation Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), saying the rebels must first lay down their arms because he did not want to give them the same legitimacy as his democratically elected government. He repeated that line Sunday, an ECOWAS official told AFP. He has a point, even though his electoral victory in October 2000 was marred by political violence and the fact that his two main rivals, former prime minister Alassane Ouattara and former president Henri Konan Bedie, were disqualified on questionable grounds. Within Africa and internationally, leaders have urged Gbagbo to negotiate, for fear of the destabilizing effects of a drawn-out conflict and the likely exodus of refugees. ECOWAS, the African Union, west African states Togo and Nigeria, former colonial power France and the United States have all called for Gbagbo to find a non-military solution. So far, Gbagbo has turned a deaf ear to those calls and stuck to legalistic arguments. In a nationally broadcast speech on Tuesday, he essentially told the rebels: lay down your arms and we'll see. But if Gbagbo did agree to talk with the rebel Ivory Coast Patriotic Movement, what would he negotiate for? Initially, the government was confident that its military superiority would crush the uprising by mutineers and ex-soldiers returned from exile. Then defense minister Moise Lida Kouassi, sacked late Saturday, said he would only consider talking about the rebels' surrender after the uprising erupted on September 19. The tone changed by early October, after the government army lost key battles. The government understands that the rebels are disciplined and well-equipped, and seemed ready then to sign a ceasefire to facilitate talks. But Mamadou Koulibaly, president of the National Assembly, said that by sacking the defense minister Gbagbo was taking personal control of the portfolio. "The president is positioning himself to wage the war as he wants to -- that is, to switch from being on the defensive to going on the offensive, it's a new strategy," Koulibaly said. On the rebel side, their leaders keep raising the bar. From their perspective, the government has used ECOWAS attempts at mediation as a chance to strengthen its military position. But their aim remains Gbagbo's removal from office. Some of Gbagbo's key aides clearly want to end the crisis by force, as shown by arrival Sunday of armored vehicles from Angola. But since September 19, Ivory Coast has essentially been split in two. The Ivorian military -- poorly trained and ill-prepared for combat -- has failed to make any headway. If the hawks prevail, some analysts foresee a scenario where the president controls the main city Abidjan and the south of the country, with the rebels launching regular attacks south. The crisis is complicated by the presence of French troops in Ivory Coast's center, where they were deployed to protect the 20,000 French citizens who live here. Paris has been tangled in the conflict for nearly three weeks, and has tried hard to stick to its new Africa policy of "no interference, but not indifference". Unlike past practice, France is not flying in to pull an African leader out of trouble. On the political front, no domestic dialogue is left. Gbagbo's Tuesday address to the nation was no call to unity. Instead, he compared the rebels to his political rivals. "In January 2001, in September 2002, you attempted coups d'etat. You did not succeed. Learn the lesson and wait for elections in 2005," he said. As for Gbagbo's Forum for National Reconciliation, launched in October 2001, nothing is left from it. General Robert Guei, who took power in a December 1999 coup but lost it in the October 2000 elections, was killed during the uprising. As for Gbagbo's other rivals, Ouattara was forced to seek refuge at the French ambassador's home, and his own house was torched. Bedie, who also fears for his life, has called for talks with the rebels. Gbagbo looks lonelier every day.